You gotta love the first two weeks of the NFL Season. You never know which team is going to win during any given game, because with the way today's NFL is structured, last year's successes mean nothing. Conference champions can fail to make the playoffs and former last place teams can win the Super Bowl. And within the first two weeks, it's next to impossible to get a good read on which squads are going to go far, and which teams are going to falter.
But besides all the uncertainty, the thing I love most about the first two weeks of the NFL Season is the way that everyone jumps to conclusions. Just look at all the cries coming from people ready to crown the 2-0 New Orleans Saints as the NFC South champs already. They're almost as loud as the folks mourning the 0-2 Carolina Panthers. But despite the disparities in the standings, I'm next to certain that come Week 17, the Saints will be staring up at the Black Cats in the standings. We've still got 15 weeks left to play, and the good teams tend to separate themselves from the not-so-good ones in that length of time.
Honestly though, people haven't appeared to be nearly as bad about jumping to conclusions this year as they have in the past. (See 2003, 2004, and 2005 if you don't believe me.) But maybe that's only because most teams that people expected to be good are 2-0, and most teams that were expected to be bad are 0-2. There's no sweetheart underdog like a 2-0 Texans or Lions to get behind, and no 0-2 Colts or Seahawks to disregard. The only teams with records that are truly surprising are the aforementioned Saints and Panthers.
...Oh and of course the 0-2 DOLPHINS!!!
However, I can say with near-certainty that while it appears nobody's jumping to conclusions this season, everyone still is. Because if you honestly think that all the teams sitting atop their division are going to stay there, and none of those winless squads is going to make a serious run at the playoffs, you're fooling yourself.
So this year, as in the past, I'm going to make a few predictions of my own based on what we've seen over these two weeks. Hopefully they'll serve as a helpful guide this season, as I'm right about these types of predictions about 75% of the time. And once again, for clarification, what sets these predictions apart from what I'm criticizing the media for is the fact that these are based on logic, not the team's record.
1. Jacksonville is going to take the Colts to the wire.
Maybe I'm not bold enough to hand the AFC South over to the Jaguars outright, but I do think it's going to be close. The Colts squeaked by a shaky Giants team, and blew out the terrible Texans. The Jaguars, on the other hand, played a decent Dallas team and shut-out the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Jaguars also get to play the Dolphins and Chiefs, while the Colts are stuck with the Patriots, in New England, and the Broncos. Without the edge that The Edge gave the Colts on the ground, they won't be nearly as dominant against smash-mouth type teams. This is a division that will be decided by the two games these teams play against each other.
2. Carolina makes the playoffs.
With the way the Falcons look, the Panthers will have a tough time catching up for the NFC South title. But that doesn't mean the wildcard is anywhere out of the question. The NFC is horrible, and the Panthers are notorious for ending on a hot streak.
3. Pittsburgh won't make the playoffs.
How's that for a bold prediction? Pittsburgh just isn't making it. The Bengals are taking the division again. That leaves the wildcard up for grabs. One spot is going to the lose of the Colts/Jaguars battle, I think the other ends up in the hands of an AFC West team, or even the Ravens.
4. Minnesota doesn't either.
I'm a big fan of the Vikings, but they've beaten the struggling Redskins and Panthers by less than convincing 3 point margins. I think we'll see the two wildcard spots end up in Carolina and the NFC East.
5. Buffalo and San Francisco come up inches short.
Here's two teams that nobody was expecting anything from. I'm not putting them in the playoffs, but I have a feeling that they'll be in the hunt come Week 15 or 16. Both have played two games where they've showed a lot of heart. They've each played two close games all against more talented opponents. The fact that they've both pulled out a win, and are a play or two away from sitting at 2-0 speaks volumes about what we can expect to see in the coming weeks.
6. The Bears are going to the Super Bowl.
The Bears have yet to play anyone good, but they've also just thrashed their weak opponents. You can forget the NFC East and Seattle just doesn't look the same. That leaves the Panthers and Falcons as the real challengers at the moment. I think the Bears have both of their numbers.
7. So are the New England Patriots.
I think anyone in their right mind knows that if the Patriots hadn't completely imploded AND been screwed over by the refs against Denver, we'd be contemplating their chances of claiming a fourth straight title. The Patriots totally have the Steelers number in the playoffs, and Seattle would have folded up in the title game.
What you have to realize about last year's team was that they were ravaged by injuries. Rodney Harrison, Matt Light, Tedy Bruschi, and Corey Dillon are just of the few players who were either shelved for the season or playing with significant problems. This season, all those major players are back in nearly full health. And while the losses of Willie McGinnest, Deion Branch, and Adam Vinatieri do sting, I can't say that any of them were irreplaceable like the four I mentioned above. When you add to that the unlimited potential of Lawrence Maroney, this Patriots team is going to be very difficult to beat.
These first two wins have been shaky at best. In understand that. But when you consider that the Colts, Broncos, and Steelers have all significantly downgraded this year, and the Patriots have only gotten better, why is nobody giving this team a real shot? The same reason as ever year - no respect.
I guess, just like the annual Week 2 confusions, some things never change.
