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The Patriots aren't what they used to be.
2009 NFL Quarterly Report
Well, now's the time for the Patriots to do
something that counts. The Colts on Sunday night, the revenge game vs.
the Jets, Monday Night Football in New Orleans, and then a trip down to
Miami where they can officially capture the division crown. If the
Patriots win those four games, believe me, everyone will take notice.
Those are the types of games that the 2003 and 2004 Patriots would have
won. Those are also the types of critical games that this team lost
last year and in 2002 when they failed to make the playoffs. If the
Patriots are the pretenders that everyone seems to think they are,
they're find a dumb way to lose to Indy or New Orleans, and they'll
allow the Jets and the Dolphins to stay alive.
Those
words I wrote a mere four weeks ago in my Mid-Season Report sum up the
Patriots pretty well, don't they? "Pretenders". I never fell into the
trap of thinking that this 2009 version of the team had really anything
to do with the ones that captured those Super Bowls earlier in the
decade. I knew fully well that Tom Brady, Matt Light, and Kevin Faulk
were the only men remaining on the roster who remember toppling the
Rams in the Super Dome. The other fifty players have just been living
under the protection of that legacy. "The Patriots never blow fourth
quarter leads!" "The Patriots are always at their best in the biggest
of games!" "The Patriots never lose two games in a row!" Really?
Because last time I checked, half the players in the Patriots locker
room weren't even around for the Super Bowl against the Giants two
years ago, let alone the three New England actually won. "Always" and
"Never" don't ring very true when you're dealing with about 25 games
worth of material. So, no, I never expected the Patriots to be able to
pull off the heroics of Bruschi, and Vrabel, and Seymour, and Harrison,
and Willie Mac and stop the Colts four straight times on 1st and Goal
from the 1 yard line. What I did expect, however, was that this team
wouldn't blow 17 point 4th quarter leads, that they wouldn't embarrass
themselves against the best team in the league on Monday Night
Football, and that they'd be able to go on the road against an inferior
team and clinch the division.
The talent is there for the Patriots. Bruschi, and Vrabel, and
Harrison, for all their experience and killer instincts, just weren't
getting the job done any longer. Their time had passed. So Belichick
reloaded his defense with younger and faster players. Vince Wilfork,
Jarvis Green, Ty Warren, Jerod Mayo, Adalius Thomas, Brandon
Merriweather - those guys may not be the legends who played their
positions earlier in the decade, but that's still a pretty high
pedigree. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes
Welker, Ben Watson, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Matt Light, Logan
Mankins - that's a combination that should never get shout out for an
entire half. Anyway you want to look at it, the Patriots are pretty
loaded on both sides of the ball. Experience or no experience, a
roster like that should be better than 7-5. Right now, this team has
the same record as the Jacksonville Jaguars. Give me a break!
The Patriots of old always managed to turn nothing into something.
When you would look at New England's roster earlier in the decade,
you'd see nothing but a bunch of cast-offs and misfits. Yet, somehow,
those reject got the job done. Now the Patriots are about as stacked
and star-studded as they've ever been and they're a Leodis McKelvin
fumble away from being 6-6. Explain to me how Troy Brown and David
Patten take you further than Moss and Welker? How could a secondary
that was so banged-up that they were playing their 3rd receiver at
cornerback be more effective than the stable of speedsters we're
currently trotting out onto the field? You simply can't explain it.
There was no good reason the Patriots should have toppled the Rams.
There was no rational explanation for the reign of terror that the held
over the Colts. They were a team that had no business winning 21
straight games or three out of four Super Bowls. There was nothing
rational about those New England Patriots. They defied all logic.
They took the improbable and made it reality. That was the beauty of
the way we were.
I've come to grips with the fact that this team is no longer
"special". Whatever magic the Patriots seemed to have thrived on faded
away the night they finally fell to the Colts in the AFC title game.
Sure, the 18-1 season was significant in its own right, but that 2007
team was supposed to be that good. The fact that they fell to the
Giants in the end further nails home the point that they lacked "it",
whatever "it" was that made those earlier teams so perfect when it
mattered the most. Last season, the Patriots just couldn't catch a
break, again, something you'd never would have said in 2003. This
year, they're just inventing new ways to shoot themselves in the foot,
week after week. When the Patriots were going through that miracle
run, I had trouble fathoming what it would be like when it ended. I
knew it would end; it had to, but I just couldn't imagine seeing Tom
Brady and his team mates fail. Now I don't have to imagine what it
will be like, I'm living it.
So, no, these certainly aren't the New England Patriots that
everyone has been unfairly expecting them to be. These are the 2009
Patriots, flawed and hurting. The thing that everyone is forgetting is
that it doesn't take "it" to win the Super Bowl. the 2002 Tampa Bay
Buccaneers didn't have any magic dust, nor did the 6th seed 2005
Pittsburgh Steelers. Ordinary teams hoist the Lombardi Trophy all the
time. Just because the '09 Patriots aren't dancing in Cinderella's
slipper, doesn't mean they're finished. They have four very winnable
games remaining, and finishing 3-1 will almost assuredly earn them a
playoff spot, and probably still the AFC East. Barring some sort of
massive collapse or the perfect storm of tie-breakers, there will be
post-season football for New England, and once you're in, anything can
happen.
The goal, however, is not to simply get in, but to get in and do
well. The road to doing well starts this week, and the next, and the
next, and the next. Last season, the Patriots used the final four
weeks to turn into title contenders and fate just refused to let them
in. This year, they sit with the very same 7-5 record, with a very
similar schedule in front of them, only, now, they control their own
fate. It's time for the Patriots to forget about how they used to be
and start becoming the team they want to be. There's nothing "magical"
involved with that. It's going to be a matter of getting back to
basics, working hard, playing smart, and living in the moment. If they
can start to do those things, this wandering ship will begin to turn.
They'll start winning on the road, closing out games, and becoming a
team that oppontents fear. Then, and only then, will the Patriots
change from a team that was special, to one that is.
Predictions:
NFC NORTH:
1. Vikings
2. Packers
3. Bears
4. Lions
The Vikings have the North all but wrapped up but Green Bay could certainly be sniffing out the top Wild Card spot.
NFC SOUTH:
1. Saints
2. Falcons
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers
The only question remaining is whether the Falcons can turn their season around and win a wild card spot. That's currently looking like a "no".
NFC EAST:
1. Eagles
2. Giants
3. Cowboys
4. Redskins
The Cowboys have a brutal road ahead. I know it's the "trendy" thing to do at the moment, but I can't help but go along and predict a fall for The Boys.
NFC WEST:
1. Cardinals
2. Seahwaks
3. 49ers
4. Rams
Outside of the East, the NFC is looking pretty dull in the home stretch. Zona had this division weeks ago.
NFC SEEDING:
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Cardinals
4. Eagles
5. Packers
6. Giants
In the NFC it looks like the only questions remaining are which two NFC East teams will be making the playoffs.
AFC NORTH:
1. Bengals
2. Ravens
3. Steelers
4. Browns
The division is all but Cincinnati's at this point. Can Baltimore or Pittsburgh rebound to grab a wild card? It's not looking good.
AFC SOUTH:
1. Colts
2. Jaguars
3. Titans
4. Texans
Outside of Indy, it's surprises all around as the Jags and Titans have far exceeded expectations and the Texans continue to not meet them.
AFC EAST:
1. Patriots
2. Dolphins
3. Jets
4. Bills
The Patriots could've made this a no-brainer like many of the other divisions. Unfortunately, their lack of execution has kept the AFC East race alive. Still, with the schedule remaining, you have to think the Pats will find a way to pull it out.
AFC WEST:
1. Chargers
2. Broncos
3. Raiders
4. Chiefs
San Diego overthrew Denver and now has a solid grasp on the division. Unless this red hot team cools off immensely, the Chargers will not only be the champs again, but have a bye week to go with it.
AFC SEEDING:
1. Colts
2. Chargers
3. Bengals
4. Patriots
5. Broncos
6. Ravens
The Dolphins, Steelers, and Jaguars are all still in play, but nobody has a nicer road than Baltimore to end the year
NFC PLAYOFFS:
Wildcard Round:
Cardinals over Giants, Packers over Eagles
Divisional Round:
Packers over Vikings, Saints over Cardinals
NFC Championship:
Saints over Packers
AFC PLAYOFFS:
Wildcard Round:
Bengals over Ravens, Patriots over Broncos
Divisional Round:
Colts over Patriots, Chargers over Bengals
AFC Championship:
Chargers over Colts
SUPERBOWL XLIV:
Chargers over Saints
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