Who are the Patriots without Wes Welker?
2009 NFL Playoff Preview
A week ago, I envisioned the Patriots riding into the post-season on a
four-game winning streak. They were supposed to have followed up their
shellacking of Jacksonville with an impressive victory over the
do-or-die Texans. They would have won their last two games on the
road. They would finally be firing the kill-shot when their opponent
was wounded. They would have a four-pronged ground game to compliment
the Welker/Moss duo. Yes, the Patriots, a team that everyone counted
out after their back-to-back defeats against the Saints and Dolphins,
would be entering the post-season flying high and perhaps looking
better than any other team in the twelve-franchise field.
As has been the case all season, things just didn't go according to
plan. As New England approaches its Sunday afternoon match-up with
Baltimore, there are far, far more questions surrounding this team than
answers. How healthy is Tom Brady? Can the offense survive with a
receiving corps of Randy Moss and... yeah, that's pretty much it? Is
Laurence Maroney going to play again this season? Do we even want to
risk having Laurence Maroney playing again this season? Will Bill
Belichick remain as cavalier with his play calling now that each game
could mean elimination? Is this team capable of stopping a quarterback
on the road who's not named Trent Edwards? How large of a fourth
quarter lead would this team have to have for me to feel comfortable
about the outcome? 22 points? 23 points?
Honestly, there's a part of me that just wants it to end. This
season has been beyond maddening. As the playoffs progress and the
stakes heighten, it's only going to be more painful when the mistakes
that have plagued this team all season finally do them in. If the
Patriots lose to Baltimore, it's quick and relatively painless. The
team is clearly rebuilding. They lost their MVP in Week 17. End of
story. See you in September.
Then, there's the part of me that realizes just how special it is
to have a team in the post-season. I remember my outrage last season
when the 11-5 Patriots were left out in the cold and the 8-8 Chargers
were treated to a home playoff game. I think about my Minnesota
Timberwolves who haven't played a meaningful game since 2004. I look
back at flawed teams like the 2005 Steelers and 2007 Giants who managed
to overcome the odds and claim the Lombardi. I think about the players
like Tom Brady and Wes Welker who have truly given their all to bring
their team to this point. When all those things come to light, suddenly
the past 17 torturous weeks seem very, very worth it.
Still, anyone who thinks that the Patriots have a good shot at
winning it all, has to be out of their mind, right? After all, Wes
Welker was the most pivotal point in New England's offense. The team
has struggled to score points in big games all season, so losing the
NFL's top receiver has to be a game-ender, doesn't it?
Maybe. Things could very well spiral out of control for the
Patriots on Sunday afternoon. It wouldn't be overly surprising to find
this team in a deep hole in the middle of the 3rd quarter with no way
to climb out. However, there's a part of me that can't help but wonder
if losing Wes Welker was the best thing that could have happened to New
England. Don't get me wrong, Welker was, without question, the
most-valuable contributor on the Patriots' roster. In the game against
Carolina, he single-handedly brought his teammates and the crowd back
into what had been a lifeless contest. He fought for more yards and
churned out more first downs than anyone. It's not even close. Yet
despite Wes Welker's career performance this year, there's a part of me
that wonders if he was almost "too" good. Is it possible that Welker
was so reliable that Tom Brady relied on him too much? Would Brady
have been better chucking deep to Moss more often instead of safely
hitting Welker for a 5 yard gain? Did guys like Sam Aiken, Benjamin
Watson, and Chris Baker lose a little bit of their edge, knowing that
on any given play, there was about a 5% chance the ball was heading
their way? Are there times (the play immediately preceding 4th and 2
comes to mind) where Belichick would've been better to dial up a run
vs. a quick out to Wes?
Maybe Welker made the game too easy for everyone else. When he was
on a roll, everyone could step back and watch him do his thing. When
their backs were against the wall, everyone was depending on Wes to
come up with the big play, vs. creating one of their own. He was their
crutch. Need a first down? Go to Welker. Need to make a comeback?
Go to Welker. Need somebody to create a spark? Go to Welker. Perhaps
the biggest complaint that Patriot fans have had all season is that
this team lacks the versaility that had become New England's
trademark. The Patriots had become one-dimensional. The perplexing
package that Bill Belichick would vary week to week became so
predictable that even the most casual football fans could predict what
was about to happen.
With Welker gone, all of that will change. It will have to, or the
Patriots will find themselves eliminated in the Wild Card round for the
first time in Belichick's tenure. When the Patriots need a couple of
yards to keep a drive alive, it's going to be up to Kevin Faulk, or
Laurence Maroney, or Fred Taylor, or Sammy Morris, or Ben Watson, or
Chris Baker, or Sam Aiken, or Julian Edelman to step up and make that
play. You know what? As a defense, I would have to think that
accounting for the laundry list of players that I just rattled off
would be a whole lot tougher than focusing on Wes Welker. As improbable
as it may sounds, losing Wes may very well end up being a case of
addition by subtraction.
Had Welker not gone down, Sunday's game would have undoubtedly been
one where New England was heavily favored. By the same token, the
Patriots would also have been ripe for an upset and another one of
their storied fourth quarter meltdowns. Now, the temptation to be
complacent is completely gone. Every single player knows that they
only way this team survives another week is if everyone gives their
all. They can't afford to get far behind. They don't have the luxury
of letting up if they get a lead. For the first time since 2007,
there's no longer an aura of greatness surrounding the Patriots. If
this team is to go anywhere this post-season, it will take a whole lot
more than being a bunch of co-stars in the Wes Welker Show. It's going
to take a committed group of underdogs playing the right way and
griding it out for the full 60 minutes. It's going to take New England
Patriots football, at least the kind of Patriots footall that this
franchise used to play.
This team clearly lost its identity last Sunday. That's a scary
thing to realize on the eve of the playoffs. Nobody knows what to
expect from the Patriots against Baltimore, perhaps not even
themselves. What I do know is this: as important a role as Wes Welker
played in establishing this team's identity, it was an identity that
wasn't going to win a Super Bowl. The Patriots now have a chance to
re-invent themselves for better or for worse. Maybe they'll struggle
to find themselves and this season will sputter to a hapless end. But
maybe, just maybe this team uncovers something special in the wake of
losing Welker, the same way they found redemption in the aftermath of
Drew Bledsoe's injury. We'll find out the answer to those questions on
Sunday, when the Patriots unveil the new face to the world.
Playoff Predictions:
Each season I try to
achieve the elusive goal of correctly selecting the twelve
playoff teams prior to Week 1. In the, now, eight years that I've been attempting this, the best I've
ever done is get eight correct. Most years, the results are
laughable. This season I managed to break even and get 6 out of 12.
My correct picks included the Colts, Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, Cowboys, and Packers
My incorrect picks included the Steelers, Titans, Panthers, Bears, Seahawks, and Giants
The teams I missed were the Bengals, Jets, Saints, Vikings, Cardinals, and Eagles
Now that I've firmly established that I'm mediocre at best with predicting NFL games, here are my picks for the 2009 playoffs:
Wild Card Round:
Bengals over Jets
Cowboys over Eagles
Patriots over Ravens
Packers over Cardinals
Divisional Round:
Colts over Bengals
Cowboys over Vikings
Chargers over Patriots
Saints over Packers
Conference Championship Round:
Chargers over Colts
Cowboys over Saints
Super Bowl XLIV:
Chargers over Cowboys
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