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The Patriots choke away their playoff chances.
2008 NFL Quarterly Report
For the first time since the year 2001, I honestly believe the New England Patriots are going to miss the playoffs. That statement may not seem overly extreme considering that this will be only the third season in that entire span in which the Patriots will have failed to win 12 games or more, but it's a telling sign about the state of this team nonetheless. You see even during the tumultuous 2002 season which stands as the only non-playoff year in the Brady/Belichick era, I always held onto the belief that this team would eventually rally and turn things around. In a way, they did, coming back from 14 down in the fourth quarter to defeat the Dolphins in overtime during Week 17. Had the Green Bay Packers not lied down like a bunch of dogs against the Jets hours later, the Patriots would not have been on the short end of a "best record against common opponent" tie-breaker. Six years later, the Patriots once again find themselves trailing the Jets in the AFC East and hoping for another team ahead of them in the playoff chase to stumble. The only difference this time is that I have absolutely no expectation for them hold a playoff spot when the dust has settled.
Thanks to their seemingly deliberate effort to ruin every tie-breaker possibility, the Patriots' playoff hopes now rest on their ability to finish 4-0 (so far they've only had two, two-game winning streaks this year, although the remaining competition is more than sub-par) and have either the Jets (equally as easy schedule, so not happening) or the Ravens (tough schedule, quite possible) finish 2-2. Looking at "who plays whom", I'd say the Patriots' shot at the post-season is hanging out in the 40% range. In my mind though, the outcome is already determined. In the past, if the Patriots found themselves with their backs against the wall like this, I would have had full faith in their ability to perform the miraculous and triumph in the end. But this year, it seems that this team is bound and determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I'm fully aware that the ball is really in the Ravens' court at this point and that the Patriots could play to perfection and still find the door slammed shut. The real issue is whether Baltimore falters and not whether the Pats rally. I guess the real difference is that in the past, though illogical it may be, I would have expected Baltimore to go 2-2 just because the Patriots deserved it more and because they always seemed to find a way. This year, the only thing that New England is finding is new and different ways to blow important football games. Despite losing Tom Brady, and Laurence Maroney, and Rodney Harrison, and Adalius Thomas, this still should have been a playoff team. There were still too many able-bodied members of last year's 18-1 squad to expect anything less than 12-4 with New England's cream puff schedule. But mix together a mental meltdown against Miami, horrible game management in San Diego, a completely inexcusable penalty in Indianapolis, a myriad of stupidity against the Jets, and an utter inability to hold a football against Pittsburgh and you've got yourself a recipe for watching the playoffs from your couch.
Despite popular beliefe, the Patriots' struggles this year have very little to do with who isn't on the field, and are almost entirely due to how the team has performed when they were on it. Tom Brady isn't going to prevent Randy Moss or Jabar Gaffney from dropping touchdown passes that were already perfectly thrown by Matt Cassel. He isn't going to stop huge special teams gaffes like Leon Washington's kickoff return for a touchdown against New York or Matthew Slater fumbling a kickoff last Sunday. Tom Brady can't keep Dave Thomas from kiling the team with unnecessary roughness penalties during game winning drives. He's not going to prevent Bill Belichick from making some horrendous clock management decisions in San Diego or Indianapolis. He's not going to miraculously keep the defense from being torched by the Wildcat offense, and he's certainly not going to be able to come in on defense and replace the most atrocious cornerback I have ever laid eyes upon in Deltha O'Neal. Yes, Tom Brady may have been able to cover up some of those deficiencies by making an extra play here and there or by keeping the defense off the field with longer drives, but putting makeup on Rosie O'Donnell doesn't turn her into Gisele Bundchen.
This franchise used to be Gisele, with a big-time emphasis on the "used to be" part. During the years when this team won back-to-back Super Bowls there was an undeniable magic that came over the Patriots when they'd step out onto the field. People would try to overlook it and hype up the Colts, and the Steelers, and Eagles, but when it came time to play the game there was never any doubt that the Patriots were going to absolutely smoke them. There's a reason why those New England teams combined for 21 straight wins and the incarnation we saw last year only made it to 18. Those two squads were the absolute definition of the word "team". They were the perfect storm of talent, hard work, and humility, and they were absolutely beautiful to watch. They were Gisele.
In the years since, the men who made up those teams slowly went their separate ways. It started with Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel, who were replaced with frauds like Eric Mangina (no, that's not a typo). The Troy Browns were eventually succeeded by guys like Reche Caldwell who just couldn't fill their shoes. Even some of the stallwarts who remain on the team just simply aren't what they used to be, as age and injury have clearly taken their toll on guys like Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison. In some ways it seems like just yesterday that The Dynasty was born in Jacksonville, Florida, so it can be a little hard to believe that over five years have passed since the Patriots began their back-to-back run. During that time things just seemed so perfect and so magical that we fooled ourselves into thinking it would last forever. In the years that followed, the brilliance of Brady and Belichick allowed us to keep that charade up. They piled on the makeup so thick and heavy, that few of us noticed that our supermodel had become a pig.
Flash forward to Week 1 of the 2008 season and all the cosmetics are suddenly washed away. After seeing the Patriots for the first time with all their scars and flaws, it suddenly becomes clear how the Colts were able to come back from 18 down in the AFC Championship and how a David Tyree miracle catch could down the invincible Goliath. The "will to win" simply isn't there anymore. Until that will returns, the Patriots, talented as they, will never be those unstoppable champions of 2003 and 2004. Those teams would have never let those losses happen and they certainly would have never made the long list of inexcusable mistakes the 2008 Patriots have committed. Those Dynasty teams simply did whatever was necessary to win regardless who they were playing or how high the odds were stacked against them. It was never about talent. It was about determination.
Last year's Patriots team was clearly all about the talent. They were heads and tails above any competition that they faced. But just like those "talented" teams that the Dynasty Patriots were notorious for upsetting, the 2007 Patriots fell. That's what happens when you replace the need to win with the feeling that you have the "right" to win. Even with their all their injuries, I still believe the 2008 Patriots are the most talented team in the weakened AFC. Unfortunately talent doesn't overcome turnovers and dumb decisions, and if the Baltimore Ravens win three more games this season, all the talent in the world won't mean a thing. This team has lost its hunger and its will, and if the Patriots miss the playoffs that will be the reason why, and not Tom Brady's ACL.
Predictions:
NFC NORTH:
1. Bears
2. Vikings
3. Packers
4. Lions
The race to be the worst of all eight division winners will go down to the wire!
NFC SOUTH:
1. Panthers
2. Buccaneers
3. Falcons
4. Saints
Another close race. The difference is that the winner of this division could go a couple of rounds.
NFC EAST:
1. Giants
2. Cowboys
3. Redskins
4. Eagles
The only questions left in this division is whetehr the Cowboys will win a wild card spot, and whether these teams can knock down Baltimore and help the Patriots limp into the playoffs.
NFC WEST:
1. Cardinals
2. 49ers
3. Seahawks
4. Rams
I won't knock them too much as the Patriots were in a similar situation last year, but being NFC West Champions can't be that satisfying for Arizona after looking at the competition.
NFC SEEDING:
1. Giants
2. Panthers
3. Cardinals
4. Bears
5. Cowboys
6. Buccaneers
This line-up is strong on the top and bottom and weak in the middle, which means a wild-card team could yet again head to and possibly win the Super Bowl.
AFC NORTH:
1. Steelers
2. Ravens
3. Browns
4. Bengals
Thanks to New England, the Steelers have this wrapped up.
AFC SOUTH:
1. Titans
2. Colts
3. Texans
4. Jaguars
The Titans have been in the driver's seat all season. Thanks to some lucky breaks, the Colts will keep their playoff streak alive.
AFC EAST:
1. Jets
2. Patriots
3. Dolphins
4. Bills
I'm officially conceding the AFC East. That's what ahppens when you play a disgraceful first half in a game for the division lead.
AFC WEST:
1. Broncos
2. Chargers
4. Raiders
4. Chiefs
Denver showed some signs of life against New York, but I'm still not buying them as a legit threat.
AFC SEEDING:
1. Titans
2. Steelers
3. Jets
4. Broncos
5. Colts
6. Ravens
This is what happens when you throw away every big game on your schedule. You get left out of the party.
NFC PLAYOFFS:
Wildcard Round:
Cowboys over Bears, Buccaneers over Cardinals
Divisional Round:
Giants over Buccaneers, Cowboys over Panthers
NFC Championship:
Giants over Cowboys
AFC PLAYOFFS:
Wildcard Round:
Broncos over Colts, Ravens over Jets
Divisional Round:
Titans over Ravens, Steelers over Broncos
AFC Championship:
Titans over Steelers
SUPERBOWL XLIII:
Giants over Titans
Which team looks the most like the 2003-2004 Patritos. As much as I hate to say it, it's the Giants.
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