Survivor: Exile Island - Episode 13

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Survivor Panama: Exile Island Blog
Episode 13 Elimination: ?????

This episode was fairly lame, so I'm not going to delve into much detail here. And to top it all of, I missed the first 15 minutes thanks to my TiVo forgetting that "season pass" means that you record EVERY EPISODE!  I was more than a little miffed when I sat down for my "fast forward through all the commercials" 8:15 start time and found out that there was no Survivor to be found. So not only did I have to watch the commercials, but I also missed the Aras hissy-fit. Seriously, he is such a whiny girl.

Anyway, the major sub-plot for the show was that if either Terry or Danielle won immunity, Terry basically had the game wrapped up. They'd vote off Aras and since Cirie isn't winning the final immunity challenge, his pact with Danielle would be an automatic trip to the finals and almost certain victory.

Sure enough, Dumb Aras had to go and mess everything up!  After coming up empty for the entire show, the sissy won both challenges. In some ways I'm glad, because the finale will actually be intriguing. Can you imagine how awesome the Terry vs. Aras final immunity is going to be? But on the other hand I'll probably stab myself in the eye if Aras wins the whole thing.

Since Aras had immunity, and it was common knowledge that Terry had the hidden idol, the vote came down to a Cirie vs. Danielle tie. The two will face off in a fire-making challenge to see who stays. To be continued....

The only real topic of debate was whether or not Terry should have given Danielle the idol. Hindsight being 20/20, a lot of people have called him out for not handing it over and knocking Cirie out. I disagree. While the payoff would have been huge, so were the risks. Here are the reasons why I think Terry did the right thing:

1. Danielle is the favorite to win the challenge. She should be able to beat Cirie in fire-making. It seems the general consensus is that Cirie is going to pull it off because they showed her learning to make fire this episode. I don't think that proves anything. To me, that was just a ploy by the editors to add to the drama by making Cirie seem competent. If they didn't show that, nobody would have given her a shot.

2. While it's true that if the vote had gone 2-2 Terry vs. Cirie, he would have absolutely destroyed her in fire-making, there's no way he could be 100% certain that's what the challenge would be. It could have been picking a rock out of the bag. Does he really want to go out like that?

3. You can't trust Danielle. She's screwed him over multiple times this game, so why on earth would he ever put his fate in her hands? She could grab the idol and then turn around and vote him out.

4. If Danielle goes, his chances of winning the whole thing are very bad, but his shot at $100,000 are still very realistic.

Point blank, if Terry holds onto the idol, there's no way he's not in the final three. And while he would have been fine, he didn't know that. It's very easy to criticize now that everyone knows the outcome, but put yourself in his shoes. I'm keeping the idol.

I'm basing these odds on the assumption that Danielle has a 60% edge in the challenge. So that's the logic behind them.

Here are my FINAL Predictions/Odds from best to worst:
 

Danielle:  If she doesn't beat Cirie, then she's gone. If she does beat Cirie, she's up against Aras and Terry. She's not beating either of them. Austin, Courtney, Shane, and Cirie go for Aras. Austin, Sally, Courtney, and Shane go for Terry. She's plaing for a hundred grand right now.

Odds: 12:1  Last week: 3:1
 

Dumb Aras: To win the game, Aras will need to pull out the final challenge. Nobody is taking him with them, not even Cirie. The woman is far to smart to not take Terry. So it comes down to Aras' ability to outlast Terry. Before I gave him no chance, but he's proven he can win. However, it needs to be pointed out that this was the first immunity challenge that Terry wasn't fighting for his life. A win would have been big, but it wasn't absolutely necessary for him. So when it's do or die time who would you put your money on?  Not Aras. And then you also have to consider what would happen if Cirie beat Danielle. There's no way he's giving Terry a hundred grand. And in a beautiful ironic twist, Aras' girly grudge would cost him a million bucks as Cirie will wipe the floor with him in the final.

Odds: 5:1  Last week: 10:1

 

Terry:  He needs Danielle to win and he needs to beat Aras in the final. Things aren't looking quite as good as they did when all he needed was for either Danielle or him to win immunity. Still, if it all relied solely on himself, I'd give him 100:99 odds, but his fate is in Danielle's fire-making hands.

Odds: 2:1  Last week: 3:2

Cirie:  If she beats Danielle, the game is hers. Both Aras and Terry will take her to the final, and she'll murder both of them. So it all comes down to her 40% shot of beating Danielle. That's her odds.

Odds: 3:2   Last week: 8:1
 

The Absolute FINAL Prediction:  My head says Danielle wins but my gut says Cirie. I've always been a fan of my head. Cirie loses, setting up the greatest final challenge in Survivor history. We're talking Ali vs. Frazer here. Terry pulls it out, takes Danielle to he final. Terry over Danielle: 5-2

Last Week: Terry gets immunity again and gives the hidden idol to Danielle, sending a shocked Aras home. Terry runs the immunity table in the final, and takes Danielle with him to the final. Terry over Danielle: 5-2