A kicker who has not missed a field goal in over a year lines up with 24 seconds left in the game to send the game into overtime. He makes a cocky gesture towards the opposing sidelines, and sends the football reeling wide right. Yeah, just another day in the life of a New England Patriots fan.
Over the past three seasons, the incredible has become the ordinary in New England. When you stop and think about all the incredible games and amazing plays and side-stories we've witnessed, you'd think we were watching "Playmakers". You can't make this stuff up. And yet it keeps happening week after week. And now it's gotten to the point where you can practically call what's going to happen before it does. The Patriots have become extremely predictable, as long as you predict the unbelievable.
It reminds me of the days when I was a huge WWF fan. Vince McMahon had a knack for creating larger than life story lines, and if you started to figure out how the story writer's minds worked, you could basically know the outcome of a match before it even started. It's the same way with the Patriots. If you know the way this team plays, you just know how it's all going to end. So here's my quick overview on how to predict the Pats.
1. They rarely get themselves into a hole: You can be relatively confident that they'll put up the first points on the board. And they're practically never down by more than seven. If you see them down by a TD, expect Brady to work some magic on the next possession.
2. They won't put you in a hole either: How many blowouts have there been in the past three years? Just off the top of my head, about five come to mind. We've one two Super Bowls, but only a handful of blowouts. This team lives for pressure.
3. The defense gets cocky: They're the best defense in the league, and they haven't let us down for 16 straight games. So maybe they deserve to be a little full of themselves. But rest assured, when they've got a comfortable lead of a touchdown or more, their opponents have a great shot of getting a score. It's just not the same set of defenders out there as when the game's on the line.
4. But the defense holds: That being said, the D comes up big in big situations. If the opponent has the opportunity to take lead late in the game, or just take a big lead, look for the defense to make a stop. This holds true especially deep in the red zone. How many times have you seen a goal line stand, big interception, or forced fumble made within ten yards of the end zone?
5. Look to the kickers in big games: Nothing provides the drama of a last second kick. And the Patriots love drama. If you don't believe me, just look back at the "Snow Game", Super Bowl XXXVI or XXXVIII, or last Thursday night.
So that's some key ways to predict the outcome of a Patriots game. And to show you how these five points play out in an actual game, let's take a look back at the opener versus the Colts. Well, my first point is backed up by the fact that the Patriots scored on the opening drive. But it's also important to realize that every time the Pats needed a score to keep the game under control, they got one. Whether it was a last minute drive at the end of the half to pull within four, or the touchdown to start the second half and reclaim the lead, Brady and Co. came up big when it counted.
However, the offense never really put the game away either. Although I can't really complain about offensive production in a 27-24 game, the Patriots rarely complete the kill shot. If the Pats have the lead and need a couple of first downs to put the game away, the opponent usually gets the ball back. I know it was a special teams error, but Deion Branch's fumbled punt return on Thursday night is an example of what tends to happen.
When the Patriots went up by ten, I said to myself, "The Colts are scoring on their next drive." I knew the defense would let up. It happens every time. Sure enough, there was Manning hitting Stokley in the end zone a few plays later. That being said, the Pats' defense came up huge in the red zone forcing three turnovers to prevent touchdowns. And Willie McGinest's sack in the closing seconds proved once again why the Patriots have the most devastating defense in the league.
And like all great Patriots games, this one came down to the kickers. On the Colts final drive, I just knew Vanderjagt was missing his kick. Even before the sack even happened, I knew it. An overtime winner by Vinatieri just wouldn't match the drama of a miss by the kicker which would break his NFL record streak of consecutive field goals made. And as the ball sailed wide right, I couldn't help but smile.
It was just so predictable.
