New England Patriots - "A Little Mo'-mentum"

The media love to overanalyze everything. They put way too much stock in the insignificant details when they form an opinion about who's going to win it all. Normally, this would drive me insane, but since the Patriots happen to be their golden boys for the moment, I'm dealing with it. But let's face it, the fact that there's exactly 729 days between Super Bowl XXXVI and Super Bowl XXXVIII and since then the Patriots have scored exactly 729 points, isn't what's going to get my boys to Houston. Neither is the fact that the Pats are the only team to have won a Super Bowl in February, and Super Bowl XXXVIII takes place February 1st. Because as cool as those stats may be, they're just as meaningless as the ones that tell us that only 2 of the last 9 top seeds in the AFC have made it to the Super Bowl, or the idea that after winning 12 straight, the Patriots are "due" for a loss.

So if all these stats don't mean anything, what does?  Of course there are the key things like your run defense, your passing offense, and the hugely overlooked special teams. I'd be an idiot to not mention those things. But all twelve teams in the playoffs are good teams, and therefore they should all be pretty good at those things. So in my opinion, the one factor that going to determine which of these twelve rises above the rest and claims the Lombardi trophy, is the one factor that determined the last three teams to win the Super Bowl - Momentum. In the parity-driven NFL, the key to winning it all is catching lightning in a bottle at just the right time, and riding it all the way to the big game. And if any of you doubt this formula, you can take it up with the Ravens, Patriots, and Buccaneers. So in order to figure out this whole mess, I'm going to be relying heavily on the momentum factor, but also keeping in mind which teams are the best. Because no momentum in the world is getting the Cowboys the title.

NFC:

Dallas Cowboys:  Momentum Rating - 3

Speaking of Dallas, it just doesn't bode well for your team when your start 7-2 and finish 10-6. While double digits in the win column is something to be proud of, they've lost 4 of their final 7. Plus, they have no offense and you have to score points to win games.

Seattle Seahawks:  Momentum Rating - 6

The Hawks had to win their final two games to make it in, and they did just that. But they haven't been consistent at all this season, and have been horrendous on the road. Oh, and I can't forget to mention that they have to go on the road into Lambeau the first week of the playoffs. Not a good sign.

Green Bay Packers:  Momentum Rating - 8

They're hot. They've had several dominating wins lately, and made the playoffs by a miracle. Throw in the whole Favre's father passing away story and you've got Cinderella written all over this thing. A dangerous and legitimate threat. If they can stay out of St. Louis, which has killed Bret Favre in the past, they could very well be Super Bowl bound.

Carolina Panthers:  Momentum Rating - 4

Another team that started hot, and ended not-so-hot. They're facing the Cowboys, who won closely when these teams met earlier this season. I just don't see this team in the NFC Championship. If they do beat Dallas, it's the end of the line for them.  

St. Louis Rams:  Momentum Rating - 1

If you're undefeated at home and all you need to clinch home-field throughout the playoffs is to beat the Detroit Lions, how, someone please tell me how you not only lose the game, but get completely embarrassed by them? If they won the game, they'd be my NFC Championship pick, but now I just can't do it. This team just won't ever recover from the hurting Bill Belichick put on them over 700 days ago.

Philadelphia Eagles:  Momentum Rating - 6

They had quite the streak, but a loss to San Fran ruined it all and showed that this team is not mentally prepared to win it all at the moment. Their momentum took a huge dive with that one. Not only have they lost Westbrook, but there's a blue-print on how to expose their weakness in every opposing coach's playbook. Add in the fact that they've met with defeat for the past three years, and we're looking at the Sacramento Kings of the NFL. Since the red-hot Packers will probably stumble along the way since they don't have the talent, Philly has to be the pick to represent the NFC in the big game.  But don't count on them to win the whole thing.

AFC

Denver Broncos:  Momentum Rating - 7

They had to work hard to get in, and they did it. They killed the Colts, who they play in the first round, two weeks ago. But I really don't like the fact that they took a bye-week and sat out their starters against Green Bay. Riding the pine is not a way to build up some steam behind you. Are the Broncos over confident?  Are the Colts going to play scared?  The answers to those questions will determine who makes it to the divisional round.

Tennessee Titans:  Momentum Rating - 5

McNair is hurt worse then ever before, and that will probably do them in. They're playing a Raven's team that has owned them in the past. But I do believe they are the better team, and have fought hard to come extremely close to taking the division title from a team that beat them twice this season. There's something to be said for that.

Baltimore Ravens:  Momentum Rating - 4

They've blown games that could given them a commanding lead over the Bengals. It ended up taking them until the final week to really put them away. The only reason they're in the playoffs is because they play in the weakest division in the AFC. There are teams better than them (Miami) who are sitting at home.  That being said, if you're a bruised QB like Steve McNair, do you really want to see Ray Lewis ready to pounce on the other side of the field? 

Indianapolis Colts:  Momentum Rating - 2

They got creamed by the Broncos, and barely squeaked by the Texans. And this was all with not only the division title in the balance, but with the opportunity to end up as high as the 1 seed by winning out, or as low as the 6 seed by losing out. Peyton Manning is notorious for choking in big games, and the Colts have to be a little uneasy facing the Broncos team that torched them two weeks ago. I see this team tragically losing a close game on a missed field goal by Vanderjagt. Because according to the media's logic, after 41 straight makes, he's "due" to miss one.

Kansas City Chiefs:  Momentum Rating - 3

I've said it a million times - Week 1 is NOT the right time to get hot. And this statement is backed up by a Chiefs team that started 9-0 and finished by going 4-3. Not an overly strong end to the season. This team hasn't beaten a good team all season, and has squeaked by the bad ones with punt and kick returns by Dante Hall. Speaking of which, Dante was hot in Week 1 and was on pace to break the NFL record. However, we haven't seen him do that in something like 13 weeks now. This team has zero defense, and will get destroyed the second it tries to play a team that can actually contain Priest Holmes. By far, this is the most overrated team that I have ever seen in my following the NFL. If they manage to maintain their undefeated record at home by some miraculous intervention, they will have their tails handed to them in the AFC Championship game?  Can you tell I really dislike this team? 

And finally....

New England Patriots:  Momentum Rating - 9.9

The aren't the '72 Dolphins, so I can't give them the perfect 10. But what a season!  I knew they were the best team in the NFL when the season started. They had fixed all their problems from 2002. But then Lawyer Milloy was waived and the 31-0 drubbing by the Bills occurred. Everyone's opinion of us was lowered drastically. The incredible pile of injuries followed, trailed by some poor play by Tom Brady put us into what looked like an inescapable hole. At 2-2 we were barely surviving, and were a complete afterthought in everyone's mind. Well, it took us 11 straight victories in which we never gave up, and never lost our focus to earn that respect back. And it wasn't until we poetically returned the Bills a 31-0 onslaught that we took our rightful place as the undisputed #1 team in the NFL and unanimous Super Bowl favorites. We've got home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and we're 8-0 at home. We're an NFL record 7-0 against teams with winning records. We've pitched three shut-outs in our four home games since the bye-week. We are determined. We are focused. And we are getting more dominating every week. The offense hasn't been spectacular, but it's more than efficient. And the defense is not only stopping its opponents, but creating points with its insatiable desire to create turnovers. For any team to come into Gillette Stadium and beat us, it will take one of two things. Either Tom Brady will have to throw 3 interceptions (he's hasn't thrown one at home all season), or the other team will have to play the game of their lives to overcome the best team in the NFL. I won't be happy with anything less than a Super Bowl. But in case some team does manage to play the best game of their lives, let me take this moment to thank the New England Patriots for giving me the best regular season ever. It will never be topped. Can you tell I really love this team?

PREDICTIONS: 

Ok, so I can give you all the reasons why the Patriots will beat the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXVIII. But that doesn't mean that it's going to happen. In all honesty, how often to both #1 seeds make it to the big game?  So here are my predictions for the playoffs. Gotta mix it up a bit and keep things interesting.

NFC:

Wild Card Round:

Cowboys over Panthers

Packers over Seahawks

Divisional Round:

Eagles over Cowboys

Rams over Packers

NFC Championship:

Eagles over Rams

AFC:

Wild Card Round:

Colts over Broncos

Titans over Ravens

Divisional Round:

Titans over Patriots

Colts over Chiefs

AFC Championships:

Colts over Titans

SUPER BOWL XXXVIII:

Eagles over Colts

And those are my picks. What can I say?  We were "due" for a loss...